景氣趨緩 5月PMI首度跌破榮枯值 – 中時電子報
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景氣趨緩 5月PMI首度跌破榮枯值
2015年06月02日 04:10
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黃天如/台北報導
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中華經濟研究院昨天公布5月製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)及非製造業經理人指數(NMI),兩者不但雙雙下滑,PMI為51.1%,若經季節性調整,已低於50%,這也是PMI今年首度跌破榮枯值關卡,顯示台灣景氣擴張趨緩。中經院院長吳中書分析,國內第2季表現主要受第1季國際負面因素拖累,預估第3季成長力道應會較穩健。不過,全體製造業對未來6個月的景氣狀況,似乎不是那麼樂觀。中經院調查顯示,今年5月全體製造業對未來6個月景氣狀況指數,雖仍超過50%,但看好企業家數持續下降,5月指數續跌至52.7%,較4月衰退4.7個百分點,創下今年1月以來新低。
景氣趨緩 5月PMI首度跌破榮枯值 - 中時電子報
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景氣趨緩 5月PMI首度跌破榮枯值
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我要評比
2/10
中華經濟研究院昨天公布5月製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)及非製造業經理人指數(NMI),兩者不但雙雙下滑,PMI為51.1%,若經季節性調整,已低於50%,這也是PMI今年首度跌破榮枯值關卡,顯示台灣景氣擴張趨緩。中經院院長吳中書分析,國內第2季表現主要受第1季國際負面因素拖累,預估第3季成長力道應會較穩健。不過,全體製造業對未來6個月的景氣狀況,似乎不是那麼樂觀。中經院調查顯示,今年5月全體製造業對未來6個月景氣狀況指數,雖仍超過50%,但看好企業家數持續下降,5月指數續跌至52.7%,較4月衰退4.7個百分點,創下今年1月以來新低。
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在PMI共5項組成指標中,新增訂單數量及供應商交貨時間2項,均已連擴兩個月呈現緊縮(低於50%),生產數量、人力雇用數量及現有原物料存貨水準3項則仍維持擴張;與4月相較,新增訂單及生產指數,分別大跌了6.9及5.3個百分點,跌幅最大。製造業6大產業中,4大產業呈現擴張,依擴張速度依序為食品暨紡織產業(57.5%)、化學暨生技醫療產業(55.4%)、交通工具產業(53.9%)與電子暨光學產業(50.8%);另基礎原物料產業(47.4%)、電力暨機械設備產業(49.8%),則呈現緊縮。吳中書表示,探究國內景氣擴張趨緩的原因,除每年5、6、7月,原本就是傳統電子資訊業的淡季,另美國第1季的暴風雪天氣及港口罷工事件,以及中國大陸景氣擴張趨緩等,也都對我第2季表現造成延續性的影響。但他強調,PMI看重的是趨勢,指數短暫1個月跌落50%以下,並不宜就此武斷定義為「國內PMI由擴張轉為緊縮」,後勢如何發展,仍有賴觀察我進、出口及內需表現,接下來是否能有起色而定。,