名家觀點-智慧表為何賣不好

名家觀點-智慧表為何賣不好 – 中時電子報

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名家觀點-智慧表為何賣不好

2015年05月29日 04:10

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名家觀點-智慧表為何賣不好 - 中時電子報

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名家觀點-智慧表為何賣不好

2015年05月29日 04:10

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點閱11431

我要評比

7/10

圖為Apple Watch。(摘自Apple.com)

Apple Watch為蘋果公司穿載式電腦首次出手,據市場研究公司Slice Intelligence估計,其訂購量為250萬只,首日訂購爆大量,爾後一路走低。凱基投顧更指出,Apple Watch今年出貨量可能遠低於之前的預估,不到3000萬支一半,市場共識暫定調 「Apple Watch銷售情況不佳」。正所謂天下大勢合久必分,分久必合,數位世界亦然。蘋果公司自2007年推出了iPhone叱詫全球,至今也有數年,其間,受其衝擊不支倒地的分流硬體或品牌,不知凡幾。以iTune、app store的數位槓桿撐起匯流終端王朝,蘋果公司的市值曾經全球第一,只不過近一兩年,平價智慧手機當道、平板電腦成長遲滯、客廳數位匯流以服務及應用經濟取代硬體,全球產業亟需全新的數位終端,此時,早已被談論多年的物聯網順勢興起。

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國際上不同的市調公司預測2020年物聯網裝置數量,從250億到高達上千億個不等,都是數倍,甚至十倍於目前的智慧載具,豈可與匯流終端「等量」齊觀,也因此,仍用匯流的觀點來視之,是不合時宜的。它是一種新分流;數位載具的分流、內容的分流及應用服務的分流。就應用情境而言,過去的定義是十分籠統空泛的,無論是教育、娛樂、資訊的情境,無論是固定、移動、可攜的情境,都對應同樣的匯流終端,而新分流是將目前的應用情境碎片化,如潛水、登山、某種運動,或在雪地活動時等等。就載具而言,不是重回過去數位相機、手持遊戲機等分流硬體,而是配合碎片化情境,重新定義、聚焦單一功能。簡言之,與其說Apple Watch銷售不如預期,倒不如說,這是未來數位新分流的常態,分流的硬體數量總合一定超過匯流,但單一領域產品數不可與匯流產品相提並論。錯估數位匯流態勢代價很嚴重,單舉一例,研究機構Yole指出,Apple Watch熱賣與否,將決定藍寶石產業的前途,若銷售不佳,業者勢必洗牌,並出現4~5年衰退,台灣製造與全球連結很深,不可不慎啊!(作者為科技媒體專欄作家),

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